McKinsey & Company has predicted that demand for light product including gasoline, diesel/gasoil, jet/kero etc, which largely drives refining utilisation, will plateau by the mid-2020s – even in the case of a delayed energy transition.
The report, entitled Global downstream outlook to 2035, forecasts that on current trends, demand will fall by 2.8MMb/d from 2019 levels by 2035 – this rises to 11.7MMb/d if the energy transition accelerates.
The projection is more pronounced at a regional level, with light product demand in North America and Europe expected to fall most sharply, whereas a delayed transition could see demand in Africa increase by 1MMb/d by 2030.
Six major shifts that affect long-term global energy demand include uptake of electric vehicles; efficiency gains and uptake of low-emission fuels for aviation and marine; increased demand reduction and recycling of plastics; cost reductions for renewables and storage; electrification of residential heat and electrification of EU industry low and medium temperature heat.
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Source: OilReviewAfrica
