The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is set to get tighter and could even see annual supply deficits as a result of likely delays in the development of LNG projects in Mozambique due to the country’s worsening security situation, according to Rystad Energy report If the expected delays materialise, 2029 will see an LNG supply deficit of 5.6 mpta instead of a previously expected surplus of 2 mtpa. (Image source: catmoz/Pixabay)

The market could see up to nine million tpa of supply removed between 2026 and 2030, disrupting global balances. Rystad Energy had previously forecasted a largely balanced market in 2026, but now there could be more competition for available volumes that year, leading to an upside risk in prices and higher price volatility.

Similarly, the loose market conditions of 2027-2028 that we had originally forecasted could become more balanced if Rovuma LNG’s 15.2 million tpa of potential capacity is unavailable. Finally, across 2029 and 2030, the market could tighten again and face supply deficits amid an expected surge in global LNG demand, as Rovuma LNG may only reach plateau production after 2030.

“The ongoing insurgency in the Cabo Delgado region, while initially seeming manageable, appears to have dented Mozambique’s LNG dreams. We now expect Total’s Mozambique LNG to start production only in 2026, with construction unlikely to resume without demonstrably stronger security arrangements at the Afungi site. Rovuma LNG may be delayed enough to mean it is brought online only around 2029,” said Kaushal Ramesh, LNG analyst in Rystad Energy.

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Source: OilReviewAfrica